CONCACAF Champions League Final

Looks that I was wrong on both series. I picked Santos Laguna to win the series against Tigres seeing as the team was the most consistent and basing it on the way that they played, well it is fair to say that Tigres surprised me. In the second series I picked Sporting KC because they were a bit more consistent than Monterrey.  Well, there is the end of that.

In the Overall table which determines who is the team which would host the final leg are

Team Wins Draws Losses Goals in Favor Goals against +/- Points
Monterrey 4 1 1 14 3 +11 13
Tigres 4 0 2 13 5 8 12

Games

Away Leg: @Tigres, April 23rd Estadio Universitario, San Nicolás de la Garza, Nuevo León, México, 10pm ET

Home Leg: @Monterrey, May 1st, Estadio BBVA Bancomer, Guadalupe, Nuevo León, México, 10pm ET

Analysis and predictions of the games

Away Leg

Knowing that Tigres has won every game at home and only one by the minimum it is safe to assume that Monnterrey will not win in Tigres. In terms for points at home Tigres won nine out of nine points at home, making them have a perfect record at home.

Moreover of the games that Monterrey has played outside of their own home ground their record is one win, one draw and one loss, so out of the possible nine points they only gained four which would mean a  44.44% record away from home.

However those numbers are well to use in the on-paper analysis of the game but there is a big factor that is being overlooked, a rivalry. These two teams comprise a Mexican rivalry called El Clásico Regiomontano, which makes picking the winner of the Champions League difficult. Since 2017 when these two teams play each other in the Estadio Universitario, they have been all draws except one time Tigres won. Of those draws, the one with some kind of level is when both played in the Apertura final of 2017 which ended in a 1-1 game. The only result that is not a draw Tigres won in the away leg of the Clausura 2017 final winning the game 4-1.

My Prediction: Based on past results, 1-1

Home Leg

Tigres on the road have been somewhat inconsistent. If they have won nine points at home and have twelve overall, that means that they have three points won on the road. That is only a 33.33% record outside of their home ground. Meanwhile Monterrey have won every game at home.

Again looking at recent history of the rivalry, the previous two games with the same intensity it has not been kind to Monterrey. The Rayados have won one and lost one against Tigres in final-stage games at home. That is only a 50% record. The away goals rule applies to even the final of the Champions League so if Tigres scores more than one goal in the Estadio BBVA Bancomer and both teams still manage to even out the aggregate record, Tigres wins the League without extra time or penalty kicks.

My Prediction: Again based on past results it would be Tigres 2-Monterrey 1

Winner: Tigres (Aggregate 3-2)

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