CONCACAF Nations League Clinching scenarios for League A

As all national teams have played at least 2 games there are a couple of clinching scenarios that are going to be happening. Some are easy like wining one point to others needing at least four points to clinch the group. Since there is so many scenarios this would only be for League A, League B will be coming up soon with League C.

 

Group A

Games Wins Draws Losses Goals in Favor Goals against +/- Points
Canada (G) 3 3 0 0 9 0 9 9
United States 2 1 0 1 7 2 5 3
Cuba 3 0 0 3 0 14 -14 0

(G)= Qualified to the Gold Cup

Canada’s clinching scenarios:

  1. Win or draw against the United States
  2. Lose against the United States and Cuba winning one point against the United States
  3. Lose against the United States and the United States not over take them in goal differential

Canada can clinch home-field advantage in the semifinals if:

  1. Wins at United States AND not have Mexico and Honduras win and overtake them in goal differential

United States’s group clinching scenario

  1. Win both games

Gold Cup Qualification

  1. Win two points

Relegation for Group A

United States can stay in League A if:

  1. Win/draw against Cuba

Cuba can stay in League A if:

  1. Win against the US by a large margin

Group B

Games Wins Draws Losses Goals in Favor Goals against +/- Points
Mexico 2 2 0 0 8 2 +6 6
Panama 3 1 0 2 5 6 -1 3
Bermuda 3 1 0 2 4 9 -5 3

Mexico can win the group with:

  1. A draw

Mexico can clinch home-field advantage if:

  1. Wins both games and outscores Honduras and Canada
  2. Wins both games and Honduras and Canada loses points
  3. Wins and draws and not have Honduras and Canada outscore them
  4. Wins and Draws and
    1. Canada loses against the United States
    2. Honduras loses points against Martinique and Trinidad and Tobago
    3. Outscores Honduras  and Canada

Panama can win the group with:

  1. Win vs Mexico+ Mexico draws/loses vs Bermuda

Bermuda can win the group with:

  1. Win at Mexico + Mexico draws/loses at Panama

Relegation

Panama and Bermuda can avoid Relegation and qualify directly to the Gold Cup if:

  1. Gaining a point while the other doesn’t
  2. Not losing by that much of a difference to Mexico

Group C

Games Wins Draws Losses Goals in Favor Goals against +/- Points
Honduras (Q*)  2 2 0 0 3 0 +3 6
Martinique (z) 3 0 2 1 3 4 -1 2
Trinidad and Tobago  (z) 3 0 2 1 3 5 -2 2

(Q)= Qualified to the Gold Cup *=Clinched group (z)= Assured of at least a play-off to the Gold Cup

Honduras can clinch home-field advantage in the Semifinals if:

  1. Wins both games and outscore both Canada and Mexico
  2. Wins both games and Canada and Mexico drop points
  3. Wins and Draws and
    1. Canada loses against the United States
    2. Mexico loses points at Panama and vs Bermuda
    3. Outscores Mexico and Canada

Relegation

Trinidad and Tobago or Martinique can clinch an automatic spot in the Gold Cup and stay in League A if:

  1. Gaining a point while the other doesn’t
  2. Not losing by that much of a difference to Honduras
  3. Win against Honduras and overtake the other in Goal Difference

Group D

Games Wins Draws Losses Goals in Favor Goals against +/- Points
Curaçao 3 1 2 0 2 1 +1 5
Costa Rica 2 0 2 0 1 1 0 2
Haiti 3 0 2 1 1 2 -1 2

Curaçao wins the group and clinches a spot in the Gold Cup with:

  1. Win vs Costa Rica
  2. Costa Rica wins at Curaçao AND loses to Haiti at home AND have a goal differential higher than that of Costa Rica

Curaçao clinches a spot in the Gold Cup with:

  1. Haiti loss
  2. Draw against Costa Rica

Costa Rica wins the group and clinches a spot in the Gold Cup with:

  1. Wins both games
  2. Ties at Curaçao and wins against Haiti
  3. Wins at Curaçao and draws against Haiti

Costa Rica clinches a spot in the Gold Cup with:

  1. Win at either game by more than 2 goals

Relegation

Haiti will go to League B and the secondary qualification if:

  1. Costa Rica win vs Curaçao
  2. loss

Costa Rica will go to League B and the secondary qualification if:

  1. Two losses
  2. loss vs Curaçao and tie with Haiti if Haiti has a better goal differential

Curaçao will go to League B and the secondary qualification if:

  1. loss vs Costa Rica AND Haiti wins at Costa Rica if Haiti has a better goal differential

What I think will happen pending any surprises

Group A

Canada will win the group when it draws against the United States in Orlando which would make them qualify to the semifinal go the tournament. The US will finish second and would end up with 7 points enough to send Cuba into League B and qualify for the Gold Cup. Lastly Cuba will end with gaining no points and would need to qualify to the Gold Cup.

Group B

Mexico is going to win group by winning easily against Bermuda and drawing against Panama. Which means that Bermuda will be relegated and that Panama will qualify to the Gold Cup. Bermuda will join Cuba in to the secondary qualifying stage for the Gold Cup.

Group C

Honduras will host the semifinals and the finals by beating Martinique and Trinidad and Tobago. Martinique will be relegated which means that Trinidad and Tobago will qualify to the final four of the tournament.

Group D

Here is the hardest group to predict because of many the way that each team is playing. For instance the clear favorite, Costa Rica, is playing like crap while Curaçao is over reaching and Haiti is leveling out as of now. So I think that Costa Rica is going to win the group with Curaçao getting second and Haiti going to be relegated but still could end up in the Gold Cup.

 

 

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