I lost a little bit of money last week after profiting $20 week one. Here’s a recap from my picks last week and how they performed. The point totals reflect what each player ended up with on FanDuel.
WEEK 2 RECAP
QB: Tom Brady (30.78 points), Aaron Rodgers (19.52 points), Kirk Cousins (11.86 points)
RB: Ty Montgomery (26 points), Marshawn Lynch (11.4 points), Duke Johnson Jr. (9.5 points), LeSean McCoy (7.3 points), Ezekiel Elliott (4.2 points)
WR: Jarvis Landry (13.6 points), Julio Jones (13.3 points), Brandin Cooks (5.3 points), Amari Cooper (5.3 points)
TE: Travis Kelce (20.3 points), Jordan Reed (7.8 points), George Kittle (2.3 points)
K: Matt Bryant (14 points), Giorgio Tavecchio (9 points)
D: Ravens (17 points), Raiders (9 points), Bears (4 points)
Best Lineup: Brady, Montgomery, Lynch, Landry, Jones, Cooks, Bryant, Ravens (131.38 total points)
That lineup could’ve won you a bit of money but overall I was a little disappointed this week. Had it not been for Zeke putting up a humongous dud against the very talented Broncos D, my payout would’ve looked much different. My own best lineup ended up being one I made just to differentiate my lineups. It had Brees (22.24 points), Melvin Gordon (17.3 points), Montgomery (26 points), Michael Thomas (11.4 points), Tyreek Hill (6.9 points), Landry (13.6 points), Coby Fleener (10.8 points), Justin Tucker (6 points), Ravens D (17 points). I was saved in the last few minutes of the Saints game with a garbage time Coby Fleener touchdown, but hey, I still won money. Those are the times when stacking your lineup pays off.
And without further ado, here are my picks for week three.
Best Stacks: Cutler/Landry/Ajayi, Goff/Gurley/Kupp, Rodgers/Montgomery/Cobb, Ryan/Jones/Sanu
I would normally ridicule anyone who told me 3 of the best stacks you can set for this week are all QB/WR/RB stacks. Here’s my reasoning. First, the Dolphins are going up against the putrid Jets. This game seems very easy to predict. The Dolphins will have to rely on Jay Cutler throwing underneath passes and handing the ball off to Ajayi. Last week, Landry was targeted 15 times (called it!) but only registered 78 yards on 13 catches. This week going up against the Jets, look for Landry to get the same volume but have a more productive game. If he gets in the open field, watch out. This stack will prove to have moderate ownership levels individually, but not many people will have these 3 in the same lineups. If Cutler hits either Ajayi or Landry for a score, it will be worth your while. If you don’t use this stack, Landry is an absolute must-have regardless of what his ownership percentage will look like. The Dolphins even made a brilliant scheme decision by throwing Landry into the backfield last week. They gave him a handful of opportunities to catch the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage and make a play on his own, which is something he excels at. One of the best route runners and open field playmakers in the game, Landry will have a monster day in MetLife Stadium.
The Goff/Gurley/Kupp scenario is my favorite Mon-Thurs primetime stack, but you may be able to find more value elsewhere for GPP or cash games for the Thurs-Mon games. The ownership percentage for this stack in the Mon-Thurs is ridiculously low. In my one cash game, Stafford was owned by 85% of the league, Eli was 10%. At the very most, Goff is 5% owned, and after last night with Stafford only scoring 13.18 points, the Goff pick is looking to be a good one. The Goff to Gurley connection is my second favorite QB/RB stack next to Rodgers and Montgomery. The 49ers could put pressure on Goff, resulting in some check downs to Gurley or even better, some quick passes to Cooper Kupp. I’m taking Kupp until he has his “boom” game and everyone starts picking him as a regular sleeper. Use this stack for GPP with lots of entries.
Aaron Rodgers is always a safe bet for points, but this week I like him even more because he’s coming off a tough loss to the Falcons. You know what helps Rodgers even more? The fact that there’s question marks around his receivers. The Bengals don’t have a great secondary despite being the top ranked pass defense as of now. Don’t let that fool you. They faced the Ravens with a hurt Flacco that threw the ball just 17 times in week one, then rookie Deshaun Watson in week two. They haven’t had any sort of challenge yet, and will be significantly overwhelmed with Rodgers. With all the question marks around his receivers right now, the Bengals have no idea who to key on and will likely resort to preparing like they’re all there. Jordy Nelson practiced in full yesterday while Cobb was still out. Re-evaluate this stack before it locks to make sure your guys are actually playing. However, definitely lock in Rodgers and Montgomery as they should be one of the top tandems once again this week. Montgomery is a must-have at this point. This also means that if what I’m expecting to happen, happens, the Bengals will be behind and need to throw the ball. This makes a Dalton/Green stack very appealing for GPP tournaments considering just how bad Dalton has played this year. I’m not quite ready to throw in the towel on Dalton, but if you’re willing to put money on the line in a GPP this week and want to really maximize your point potential, this is a good option. Dalton’s ownership will be stupid low and if he links up with Green for even just 4 catches and a score, you’ll be thanking me and I’ll be asking for a cut of your payout.
Matt Ryan to Julio Jones is the safest pick if you’re going to do cash games this week. This Atlanta vs. Detroit matchup should be high scoring which bodes well for the Falcons mostly. Stafford is playing elite QB right now, but doesn’t exactly have a locked in WR1 every week that us fantasy players can count on. Golden Tate is obviously very good, but I’m not a huge fan of his production this week. I have a feeling it will be lackluster unless he breaks a big one. I always like taking Sanu in potential shootout games because at some point, the defense has to prioritize double covering Julio. That leaves Sanu man-to-man for most if not all of the game and that’s where he thrives. This is a decent GPP stack if you take Sanu. Avoid Hooper.
Here are my best individual picks for week three.
QB: Rodgers, Ryan, Carr, Siemian
RB: Ty Montgomery (must-have), Jay Ajayi, Javorius Allen, Duke Johnson Jr.
WR: Cooper/Crabtree (could be a stack or toss up pick), Jarvis Landry (must-have), Rashard Higgins, Jamison Crowder (if Reed is out), Antonio Brown, A.J. Green
TE: Jack Doyle, George Kittle, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz
K: Tavecchio, Bryant
D: Dolphins, Rams, Ravens, Jaguars
You can’t ignore how well Siemian has been playing this season. I say ride it out until he slows down. I wouldn’t worry too much about ownership % just yet because so many people will still take the Rodgers/Brees/Ryan/Brady’s of the world before they take Siemian. I even like taking a Siemian stack, but personally wouldn’t just because of the chance the Broncos get out to an early lead and run the ball to kill the clock.
Buck. Allen. I love this guy. He’s one of just a handful of running backs in the league that are legitimate 3-down backs. With Flacco still not 100%, Javorius Allen should see plenty of targets out of the backfield along with a full workload of carries. Volume is all you can ask for as a fantasy player.
Rashard Higgins is my favorite sleeper of the week. Last week it was George Kittle, but he was a bust. This week I’m a bit more confident. Higgins saw 11 targets last week and is now listed as a starter alongside Kenny Britt with Corey Coleman out. Britt has been a non-factor, and with Duke Johnson Jr. most likely operating more out of the slot again this week (which is why I picked him), Higgins should see the same workload as last week. It only helps that the Browns are playing the ever-so-terrible Colts and will want to test their offense this week. Duke Johnson Jr. should also be a benefactor of having Higgins on the outside. All it takes is Higgins to draw more attention as the game goes on for DJJ to have the middle of the field open up for him, and vice versa. Also, Duke Johnson Jr.’s ownership last week in every league I took him in was 0.1%. There’s ridiculous potential in him because of that. Sometimes, daily fantasy is about taking those players you know will explode eventually and simply surrounding them with consistency. DJJ is one of those guys. I’m all in this week on him.
I’m throwing Kittle into my picks again because I have faith he will prove me right. However, there are definitely safer picks this week. Take Kittle if you need to differentiate yourself in a GPP or if you have a couple different lineups. My top pick this week for TE is a toss up between Witten and Doyle, and it’s for the same reasons. Doyle is a poor man’s Witten. Sure hands, ability to create space off linebacker coverage, and QB chemistry.
Brissett to TE Jack Doyle: 5-for-5, 52 yards.
Brissett to everyone else: 4-for-15, 50 yards.
— Gregg Doyel (@GreggDoyelStar) September 17, 2017
Even though it’s a ridiculously small sample size to declare good chemistry between Brissett and Doyle, it’s worth noting. Doyle is not a big time vertical threat but has great hands. On tape it looks like Brissett trusts him. I like my odds with this dice roll. Witten is the number one tight end right now so once again if you’re concerned about ownership % or want to differentiate yourself, I’d take Doyle even though I think Witten will have another big game.
Dolphins defense against the Jets this week is a no brainer. But what about a sleeper defense? The Jaguars are the ideal boom or bust defense this week against the Ravens in London. They’re talented, but young. They make mistakes. With that being said, I don’t see the Ravens putting up more than three touchdowns on the Jags D. They have plenty of ability to turn the ball over, put pressure on Quarterbacks, and bat down balls in the secondary. Flacco could have a very tough time Sunday, making Buck Allen an even better fantasy option than expected. If you pair Jags D with Allen as one of your RB’s, it might look risky, but it could actually pay off in the end even if Allen scores. I don’t recommend this strategy if you can find better replacements out there, but it certainly is an intriguing option.
Good luck this week and give me feedback!