You know the drill by now. Last week went much better than week 2, I actually won some money! Literally though, I won some money. $3.02. I can’t wait for that week when there’s a bunch of zeros between that 3 and 2. It’s coming, I can feel it. I”m going to do this week a little bit differently because I can’t search the game logs on FanDuel of players who are on a bye this week which is incredibly annoying. I’m just going to highlight my good picks, my bad picks, and my best picks from last week.
Good picks: Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Ezekiel Elliott, Duke Johnson Jr., Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Zach Ertz, Charles Clay
Bad picks: Trevor Siemian, Matt Ryan, Dalvin Cook, Mike Gillislee, Tyreek Hill, Marqise Lee, Delanie Walker
Best value pick: Duke Johnson Jr.
Best overall pick: Michael Thomas
Duke Johnson continues to be a tournament play almost every week. His ability as a dynamic playmaker, someone who runs well and can lineup as a receiver, is incredibly valuable to just about every team. He’s easily the Brown’s best offensive weapon until David Njoku matures as a player. At 0-2% ownership so far each week, Johnson is a steal.
Michael Thomas has been a bit slept on this year and last week he bursted for 22 points on FanDuel. I’m willing to bet that as the year goes on, Thomas will have quite a few weeks where is ownership is outside the top 5 but his point total is in the top 5. He’s one of those not-so-sneaky-but-kin-of-still-sneaky plays.
Here’s my best stacks and individual plays for the week.
Dak/Dez, Roethlisberger/Brown, Manuel/Cooper/Cook (long shot), Rodgers/Nelson
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Andre Ellington, Bilal Powell, LeSean McCoy, Todd Gurley
WR: Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Nelson Agholor, Trent Taylor
TE: Charles Clay, Jared Cook, Zach Ertz
K: Matt Prater, Jake Elliott
D: Bears (if Bradford is out), Rams
Call me crazy, but EJ Manuel is looking like a potential top play this week. I highly recommend that if you use this stack, load up on receivers for the rest of your lineup. The strongest play with Manuel will be Cook. I’ll be dropping Cooper from most of my lineups with that stack because of one very simple reason. Differentiation. Dropping Cooper allows me to still take top receivers this week (Dez/Hilton/Green) while upgrading my running backs.
The strength this week is receivers. I don’t see a lot of big games coming out the backfield this week for many teams. However, Shady McCoy is due for a big game. I’m confident this week that Bills players will perform very well against Cincinnati, especially McCoy. He’s yet to score a touchdown this season and this week is the week. He’s a must-have.
Two players I really want to highlight this week at receiver are two players from the absolute WORST game you can imagine. the 49ers and Colts. But, if you’re a daily fantasy football person, you know there’s immense potential in this game. Weak defenses with traditionally underpriced stars on the offensive side bear great news to people like me. I think T.Y. Hilton is going to destroy the 49ers defense tomorrow. I said it once and I’ll say it again, T.Y. Hilton needs one big play and he’s worth taking for the week. I think Brissett is going to feed Hilton the ball as much as he can, especially by going deep, Hilton’s strong suit.
The second receiver I need to talk about is Trent Taylor. Yeah, I know. Who the hell is that? Let me give you some info. Last week against Arizona, Marquise Goodwin got a concussion early in the game and Taylor filled in. He saw 10 targets and caught half of them for 47 yards working out of the slot. That’s all he does. He’s a shifty slot guy who’s a good route runner and gets lots of YAC. The Colts defense is undoubtedly terrible. However, if you’re going to attack the Colts defense, you’re attacking the slot. In the link, you will see if you scroll down a table that says 2017 Defense vs. Types of Receivers. The Colts rank 8th vs. #1 receivers, in large part to Vontae Davis. They then rank 24th vs. #2 receivers, but only give up 52.3 yards/game to #2 receivers. Against other receivers, they rank 21st and give up 95.5 yards/game. Of course, “other” this isn’t slot receivers only, it’s the slot guy and their 4th stringer. The Colts rank last in yards/game given up against “other” receivers. Teams also target “other” receivers the 3rd most when facing the Colts, with 8.7 targets per game. Only the Vikings and Cardinals get attacked in between the numbers more at 8.8 and 10.9 respectively. Taking all of this info into consideration, what does it tell you? Teams attack the Colts cornerback depth, and Taylor will get a weak matchup in the slot because of this. They also attack this area of the Colts defense with success. In fact, the Colts rank 31st against passes over the middle this season. I see a lot of Trent Taylor drags and digs across the middle this weekend.
Charles Clay is on a tear right now, although the numbers don’t predict great success for Clay against Cincinnati this week. They rank 13th right now
against tight ends and only average 4.2 targets to tight ends. If you take a look closer, these stats actually tell you nothing other than the fact Cincinatti has yet face a good tight end, let alone a number one receiving option for a team that is a tight end. Cincinnati has faced the Ravens, Texans, Packers, and Browns this season, and none of them has a good tight end. The Packers have a good tight end but they don’t use him. So, I think these stats actually support Clay having a fantastic game. The Bengals won’t be ready to deal with Clay, especially with Tyrod Taylor being a mobile quarterback. Mobile quarterbacks tend to draw linebackers back toward the line of scrimmage if they’re in zone coverage and the QB moves out of the pocket. Often they’re forced to choose between defending the run and the pass, and that could open up space for Clay to operate in. Roll with Clay this week as your tight end.
The Bears defense is my sleeper defense of the week. They’re cheap, allow you to bolster the rest of your lineup with high volume players, and can actually have a great defensive day if Bradford is still out or is clearly still hobbling around on the field. Of course, if Bradford comes back, I’d be much more skeptical about the Bears and probably switch over to a safer play with either the Eagles or Rams. I’ll leave this choice up to you.
Everyone cross their fingers with me this week! I’m feeling a big payday coming!