My picks for Weeks 5 and 6 of CONCACAF WCQ

(Featured image courtesy of cdn.ussoccerplayers.com)

I was 2-4 last time but hey, everyone starts somewhere.

WEEK 5

Mexico vs Honduras, Estadio Azteca

I saw the Costa Rica-Honduras match, and Honduras looked flat in the beginning portion of the first half, something that Mexico particularly does well is to play fast in the first 30 minutes of the match. However after the 20th minute Honduras played better but in it won’t be better since Mexico has a better national team than in 2013, the year that Honduras won at the Azteca. In order to win Honduras has to play a flawless game, frankly in a venue that it is over a mile high and with a capacity of 87,000 would be hard to do.

My prediction: Mexico 2-Honduras 0

United States v Trinidad and Tobago, Stadium TBA

Trinidad and Tobago has played better as of late, but the US always plays better the first game of two. For example against Honduras, the US played the best that it could be but against Panama in Panama, they  looked flat, to quote someone “they sucked” and after a somewhat first half, they didn’t do much anything else, for more click here.

My prediction: United States 1-Trinidad and Tobago 0

Costa Rica v Panama, Estadio Nacional

Costa Rica has never lost or tied in their stadium, and Panama lost this World Cup Qualifiers in the Fourth Round against Costa Rica in that venue. I expect that this game would be a close game but not to the Fourth Round game in Costa Rica.

My prediction: Costa Rica 2-Panama 1

Projected Standings

  1. Mexico, 13 points, +6 GD
  2. Costa Rica, 10 points, +5 GD
  3. United States, 7 points, +2 GD
  4. Panama, 5 points, -2 GD
  5. Honduras, 4 points, -6 GD
  6.  Trinidad and Tobago, 3 points, -5 GD

Trinidad and Tobago is one loss away from being eliminated; Honduras has at the most 2 more losses and they are out or one if they lose @Panama or against the United States in San Pedro Sula.

Mexico clinches a berth to the World Cup in Week 6 if:

  1. Win
  2. Costa Rica loss or tie
  3. Honduras v Panama  doesn’t result in a tie
  4. United States doesn’t tie/win against Costa Rica in Week 7

 

WEEK 6

Mexico v United States, Stadium TBA, most likely Estadio Azteca

This game comes in a short rest period, however since this is most likely going to be played in the Azteca, I frankly do not see the US winning. However, there is a chance of the US to tie, but the US doesn’t do that well in terms in the second game. This is the only game in the 11th.

My prediction: Mexico 1-United States 0

Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago, Stadium TBA, most likely Estadio Nacional

Costa Rica won in Port of Spain, I don’t see any other result than Costa Rica winning. Trinidad and Tobago is going to be eliminated. This is most likely to be the late game on the 13th

My prediction: Costa Rica 3-Trinidad and Tobago 0, Trinidad and Tobago is eliminated due to Goal Differential and points. There is only 4 games after this and they have 3 points.

Panama v Honduras, Stadium TBA, most likely the Rommel Fernandez

This could either be the game that eliminates Honduras and thereby clinching Mexico and Costa Rica or have the 3rd, 4th or 5th places be tighter together and making it to be decided in the latter weeks of the Hexagonal. Panama and Honduras play in similar humidity so the heat won’t be a factor. Since this is the second of two weeks packed together, I see this game be the early game on the 13th (there are going to be 2, Mexico v US play on the 11th).

My prediction: Panama 1-Honduras 1

Projected Standings

  1. (Q) Mexico, 16 points, +7 GD
  2. Costa Rica, 13 points, +8 GD
  3. United States, 7 points, +1 GD
  4. Panama, 6 points, -2 GD
  5. Honduras, 5 points, -6 GD
  6. (e) Trinidad and Tobago, 3 points, -8 GD

Mexico clinches World Cup berth due to having the mythical 16 points and a +7 goal differential, Trinidad and Tobago is eliminated due to the lack of matches as well as the goal differential as well as only having 3 points. 

Costa Rica Clinches a berth in Week 7 if:

  1. Win
  2. Honduras/Panama do not win
  3. Tie and a Panama or Honduras loss
  4. Tie and gaining a point vs Mexico in Week 8

Costa Rica clinches first place if:

  1. Win against Mexico and then Sweep (vs Honduras, @Panama)
  2. Win against Mexico AND Mexico lose both games OR get at least 4 points and win the goal differential battle
  3. Tie with Mexico AND sweep AND Mexico lose one game

Mexico clinches first place if:

  1. Tie with Costa Rica in Week 8 AND
  2. Tie or win any of Week 9 and 10 games (vs Trinidad and Tobago and @Honduras)
  3. Costa Rica loses one more game

 

 

For the race for the 3rd and 4th place:

Honduras:

Eliminated if the following occurs:

  1. Loss versus the United States or Panama
  2. United States winning 2-3 games
  3. Panama winning 2-3 games
  4. Tie 3 games and Panama/US winning 2 games
  5. Tying in points and doesn’t improve their Goal Difference

United States:

Eliminated if the following occurs:

  1. Loss against Honduras AND Panama 
  2. Tie 2-3 games and having Honduras winning those 2-3 games
  3. Lose 2 games, and having Panama and Honduras winning 2-3 games
  4. Tying in points and having a -8 GD (if Honduras doesn’t improve the GD)

Panama:

Eliminated if the following occurs:

  1. Loss against Honduras AND US AND Trinidad and Tobago (lost in Trinidad and Tobago)
  2. Tie 3 games, and having the US/Honduras win 3 games
  3. Loss 2 games and having Honduras and US win 2 games
  4. Tying with the US and Honduras in points and also losing the Goal Differential Battle (having a -8 GD if Honduras doesn’t improve)

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